China 1H 2019 exports seen rising by 6.1% relative to a year ago in yuan terms

Official data released by China customs

China 1H 2019 exports seen rising by 6.1% relative to a year ago in yuan terms

There doesn’t seem to be any details on a monthly breakdown for June itself but the data is coming in for overall 1H 2019. Here are the details for that:

– 1H 2019 trade surplus of ¥1.23 trillion

– 1H 2019 exports +6.1% y/y (in yuan terms)

– 1H 2019 imports +1.4% y/y (in yuan terms)

Of note, total trade with the US is seen down by 9% y/y to ¥1.75 trillion during the first half of this year. China customs say that the country’s trade is facing a flurry of challenges and that the external environment remains complex.

Despite some improvement in trade conditions relative to a year ago, the slight increase in domestic demand and exports isn’t suggestive of an economy firing on all cylinders – especially not China compared to recent history.

That puts the Q2 GDP data set to be released on Monday on course for its weakest annual growth (expected +6.2% y/y) in 27 years.

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