Forex Today: Aussie – strongest amid Trump-led risk-on, eyes on Carney, Powell

The risk-on sentiment dominated the Asian trades this Tuesday on the back of the US President Trump’s optimism on the US-China trade deal. The Asian markets cheered improved risk appetite while the US dollar stalled its upside and consolidated the recent gains versus its main peers. The Aussie benefited from an unexpected uptick in the National Australia Bank’s (NAB) survey readings and trade deal hopes, having made a few attempts to test the 0.71 barrier. The Kiwi also followed suit and hit three-week lows at 0.6740 while the USD/JPY pair surpassed the 110.50 level to hit fresh seven-week tops at 110.66. Further upside in the US equity futures and Treasury yields aided the fresh leg up in the spot. Meanwhile, both the Euro and the GBP traded better bid, looking to stabilize ahead of the key central bankers speeches.   

On the commodities front, both crude benchmarks traded with moderate gains amid US-China trade while gold prices on Comex traded modestly flat above 1310 levels. 

Main Topics in Asia

Aussie pops on the back of NAB's business confidence and conditions surprising to the upside

BOJ trims long-term JGB purchases for the first time since July 2018

US Senator Shelby: Agreement in principle reached in US shutdown talks

RBNZ 2-year inflation expectations for Q1 at 2.02% vs. 2.03% prior

Gold Technical Analysis: Failed breakout has established $1315 as key resistance

Trump says “We are going to make great deals on trade”, Aussie jumps to 0.7090

Trump: `We probably have some good news' over border deal

China’s CommerceMin: China will take more measures to boost consumption

Asian stocks rise on US-China trade optimism

UK PM Theresa May calls on former EU Chief to help break Brexit deadlock – Sky News

USD/INR Technical Analysis: Bearish bias intact

Key Focus Ahead

We have a data-light calendar today, with absolutely no release from the Euroland as well as from the UK docket. Meanwhile, the NA calendar sees the US JOLTS job openings data for the month of December while the API will publish its weekly crude stocks data at 2130 GMT. Hence, markets remain focused on a slew of speeches due to be delivered by the major central bankers (CB) amidst Brexit-related developments and the US-China trade headlines.

Also, in focus remains the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision and Governor Orr’s presser that is scheduled in Wednesday’s early Asian session.

The key CB speeches lined up for today are here under:

0800 GMT: ECB Vice-President Weidmann

0900 GMT: ECB Nowotny

1300 GMT: BOE Governor Carney

1745 GMT: Fed Chair Powell

EUR/USD: Investors continue to add bets to position for drop in EUR

Risk reversals on the EUR, a gauge of calls to puts on the common currency, fell to its lowest level since the end of November, indicating investors are adding bets to position for further weakness in the EUR. 

GBP/USD: Carney's speech awaited after UK GDP miss

BoE’s Carney is scheduled to deliver a speech relating to “the latest developments in the global economy and risks to the outlook” in London around 13:00 GMT today.

EUR/GBP: Where it can go in these 5 Brexit scenarios

Time is running out to reach a deal on Brexit, with fewer than 50 days left to go. UK PM Theresa May is trying to find a deal that may pass muster in the House of Commons, be acceptable to the European Union, and not break up her party. 

RBNZ Preview: Dovish shift priced in, NZD/USD to rise?

The Reserve Bank of New announces its first rate decision for 2019 on Wednesday, February 13th, at 1:00 GMT. Governor Adrian Orr will meet the press at 2:00 GMT.

 

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